Are Solar Savings Guaranteed? (Not Exactly…)

One of the most common sources of solar regret is the gap between projected savings and actual savings. Understanding why this gap exists — and whether it represents a legitimate grievance — is essential for anyone evaluating their options.

Projections vs. Guarantees: A Critical Distinction

A solar savings projection is an estimate. It's based on assumptions about how much energy your system will produce, what utility rates will be over the next 20 years, how your usage will change, and how net metering will work in your area. None of these assumptions are certain.

A solar savings guarantee is a contractual commitment. It's a legally binding promise that you will save a specific amount. Very few solar contracts include actual guarantees — most include projections that are presented in ways that make them sound like guarantees.

The problem is that during the sales process, the distinction between projection and guarantee is often blurred. When a salesperson says "you'll save $200 a month," that sounds like a guarantee. When you read the contract, it says "estimated savings based on current utility rates and projected production." The gap between those two statements is where disputes arise.

The Assumptions Behind the Projection

Solar savings projections are built on a stack of assumptions, each of which can be optimistic:

• Production assumptions: The system will produce X kWh per year, based on ideal conditions
• Utility rate assumptions: Your utility rate will increase 3–5% per year (if rates don't increase, savings are lower)
• Usage assumptions: Your energy usage will remain constant (if you add an EV or HVAC, usage increases)
• Net metering assumptions: You'll receive full retail credit for excess production (policies vary and can change)

When multiple assumptions are optimistic simultaneously, the projected savings can be significantly higher than what actually materializes.

When the Presentation Crosses the Line

There's a difference between an honest projection that didn't pan out and a sales presentation that treated projections as certainties. If the salesperson said "you will save $200 a month" rather than "we project you could save approximately $200 a month based on these assumptions," that's a meaningful distinction.

If the savings were presented as certain, and the system has consistently failed to deliver them, and the gap is significant — that's the foundation of a legitimate complaint. Document the original representations and compare them to actual performance.